Wage and labor market trends in 2025 and the impact of external shocks in 2026

In the fourth quarter of 2025, the average gross monthly salary per employee reached 86,984 lekë, marking an increase of 4.3% compared to the same quarter of 2024 and an increase of 4.4% compared to the third quarter of 2025.

The distribution of salaries shows a steady shift towards higher levels: the share of employees with salaries above 120 thousand lekë increased from 14.1% to 16.2%, while the minimum wage fell from 14.2% to 12.8%.

By economic sector, the activities with salaries above the national average continued to be Finance and Insurance (173,283 lek) and Information and Communication (131,165 lek), with the highest annual increase in Information and Communication of 7.9%, while the Arts, Entertainment and Recreation activities recorded the lowest increase of 2.2%.

At the occupational level, Managers, Legislators and Executive Directors had the highest salaries (135,223 lek), followed by Specialists with higher education (115,228 lek). The highest annual salary increases were recorded for the Armed Forces with 10.6% and for Civil Servants with 6.2%, while managers and executive directors increased by only 3.3%.

On the labor market side, the participation of the population aged 15-64 in the labor force was 75.9%, increasing by 0.4 percentage points compared to the same quarter of 2024, but marking a decrease of 0.6 percentage points compared to the third quarter of 2025. The unemployment rate fell to 8.3%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous year, although it increased slightly by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. The employment rate increased to 58.5%, reflecting a positive employment trend, with an annual increase of 0.9 percentage points.

The analysis by sector shows that agriculture marked a modest increase in employment, industry a slight decrease, while services continued to be the sector with the greatest impact on the development of the labor market. This structure indicates an orientation towards sectors with higher wages and more economic stability.

Moving into 2026, the rise in oil prices in early March 2026 has brought a shock wave to transportation and production costs, exerting direct pressure on the prices of services and everyday consumption. Experts predict that this may slow down real wage growth, especially for energy-sensitive sectors such as transport, services and light industry, increasing the need for fiscal policy and compensation mechanisms to preserve the purchasing power of workers.

In this context, the trend towards higher wages and the concentration in key occupations and sectors remains a stabilizing factor, providing a basis to withstand the expected inflationary impacts during 2026.

In the short term, labor market dynamics, combined with wage growth, suggest relative resistance to price increases, although inflationary effects may affect the pace of real growth in workers’ incomes.