Tourism at the turning point with 3 scenarios for 2026–2030

Chapter 11 of the comprehensive study “Albanian Tourism 2025-2030” presents a synthesis of the report’s analysis and provides a strategic overview of the development of Albanian tourism until 2030. It emphasizes that after strong growth in the period 2023–2025, tourism has become one of the main pillars of the Albanian economy, achieving a historic impact on national production, employment and macroeconomic stability.

In 2025, tourism contributes about 26.4% of GDP, generates 5.4–5.6 billion euros in gross foreign exchange earnings and creates 274–278 thousand jobs, representing approximately one in five jobs in the economy. The net tourism balance reaches +2.52–2.67 billion euros, covering a significant part of the trade deficit and contributing to the stability of foreign exchange reserves. The sector also generates 930–1200 million euros in tax revenues for the central and local budgets, while capital investments in tourism reach around 0.6–0.8 billion euros, or up to a quarter of national investments.

However, the chapter emphasizes that this success is also accompanied by structural challenges, such as high informality in short-term rentals, strong seasonality, pressure on infrastructure in tourist areas and environmental risks, which may limit the long-term potential of the sector if not addressed with sustainable policies.

One of the most important developments of the period 2021–2025 is the transformation of the tourism model. Albania is moving from a model based on mass tourism with day-trips to a model with longer stays and higher spending per visitor. Nights spent by non-resident tourists have increased by around 80–90%, while average spending per visitor has increased by around 30–35%. At the same time, the percentage of tourists staying more than three nights has increased significantly. This transformation has been driven by the expansion of quality accommodation capacities, the diversification of tourism products (cultural, mountain, adventure and urban), the increase in visitors from European markets with higher purchasing power and a gradual easing of seasonality.

This structural change has significantly increased the economic productivity of tourism. Each tourist today generates more income for the economy than a few years ago, while the chain effect on other sectors such as gastronomy, transport and trade has been strengthened. As a result, the economic multiplier of tourism has increased and the sector has transformed from a seasonal activity into a key factor of economic growth.

The chapter also analyses three possible scenarios for tourism development in the period 2026–2030.

The baseline scenario, the most likely, foresees moderate growth with 13–15 million overnight stays and 8–9.5 billion euros in revenue by 2030.

The optimistic scenario foresees deep reforms and an orientation towards quality tourism, leading to 18–22 million overnight stays, 12–15 billion euros in revenue and a contribution of up to 30–34% of GDP.

The pessimistic scenario could occur if informality and infrastructure congestion persist, limiting growth and reducing the competitiveness of the sector.

The development of tourism will depend on several crucial factors, such as: the formalization of the private accommodation market, the extension of the tourist season, the management of capacities and infrastructure against external and internal shocks, the orientation towards high-value tourism and better coordination between the central government and local government.

In the final part, the chapter presents several strategic directions for the period 2026–2030. The main priorities include the formalization of short-term rentals, the development of year-round tourism, investments in infrastructure and environmental standards, the orientation towards premium tourism products and the creation of mechanisms that increase the role of municipalities in the management of tourism development.

In conclusion, the chapter emphasizes that Albanian tourism has reached a historic moment and has the potential to become a sustainable engine of economic and territorial development. However, the realization of this potential will depend on strategic decisions and public policies in the coming years, which will determine whether the sector will continue to grow only in volume or will evolve towards a higher quality, more sustainable and higher value tourism model for the Albanian economy.