The influence of Balkan countries on EU politics and vice versa for 2025

For 2025, the impact of countries in the European Union (EU) accession process (such as Albania, North Macedonia, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Montenegro) on EU policy, as well as the reverse influence of EU policies on these countries, will be significant in multiple areas. The process of integration involves both the alignment of domestic policies with EU standards and the contribution of these countries to EU governance, policy-making, and external relations. Below is a detailed overview of the key aspects of this mutual impact.

1. Albania

Impact on EU Policy.

Migration and Border Control. Albania’s EU accession will directly impact EU migration policies. As a source country for migrants, its integration into the EU could lead to increased cooperation on border control, security, and management of migrant flows within the EU.

Energy and Infrastructure. Albania has substantial hydropower potential, which could play a role in enhancing the EU’s energy supply, especially in the context of renewable energy. Its strategic geographic location also provides a gateway for energy transit from the Balkans to the EU.

Regional Stability and Security. Albania’s accession will contribute to the EU’s role in promoting stability in the Western Balkans, enhancing regional cooperation, and countering external threats from Russia and other non-EU entities.

Impact of EU Policy on Albania.

Rule of Law and Corruption. EU’s focus on the rule of law, judiciary reform, and anti-corruption policies will compel Albania to accelerate its reforms in these areas. This will likely result in a stronger legal framework, improved governance, and the development of a more transparent public sector.

Economic Modernization. EU policies will encourage Albania to adopt market-oriented reforms, improve infrastructure, and align its economy with the single market. This will help modernize industries, improve competitiveness, and enhance foreign direct investment (FDI).

2. North Macedonia

Impact on EU Policy.

Stability and Security in the Western Balkans. North Macedonia’s accession will contribute to strengthening EU policies in the Western Balkans by promoting political stability and encouraging peaceful solutions to regional disputes (notably with Greece over the name issue, which has already been resolved).

Cultural and Political Diversity. As a multiethnic state, North Macedonia will bring greater focus on inclusive governance, minority rights, and inter-ethnic harmony in the EU’s policy agenda, especially in the context of rising populism and nationalism in some member states.

Digitalization and Innovation. North Macedonia’s ongoing digital transformation can support EU efforts in fostering innovation, particularly through partnerships on technology, research, and development.

Impact of EU Policy on North Macedonia.

Human Rights and Good Governance. The EU will insist on continued efforts to enhance human rights protections, strengthen democratic institutions, and promote social cohesion. EU guidelines on human rights and democracy will likely shape domestic policies, particularly regarding ethnic minorities and media freedom.

Economic Integration and Sustainability. North Macedonia will be influenced by EU policies on sustainable economic development, green transition, and digital economy. This alignment will help modernize key sectors such as agriculture, energy, and manufacturing.

3. Serbia

Impact on EU Policy.

Foreign Policy and Regional Influence. Serbia, as the largest country in the Balkans outside the EU, will have a significant impact on EU foreign policy, especially concerning relations with Russia, China, and the broader Balkans region. Its alignment with EU foreign policy on sanctions, diplomacy, and trade will be a critical factor in shaping EU relations with non-EU actors.

Trade and Market Access. Serbia’s membership will enhance the EU’s position in the region, particularly by deepening economic ties with Eastern Europe and improving trade dynamics between the EU and countries outside its borders.

Security and Defense Cooperation. Serbia’s participation in EU defense and security policies will be important for EU stability in the Balkans. Serbia’s military neutrality and its relations with NATO will need to be balanced with EU defense frameworks.

Impact of EU Policy on Serbia.

Democratic Reforms and Rule of Law. EU conditionality will require Serbia to address key political reforms, particularly in areas of judicial independence, anti-corruption measures, and political freedoms. This will reshape the political landscape and governance structures.

Economic Reforms and Market Alignment. Serbia will need to adjust its economic policies to align with EU standards, focusing on improving business environments, state aid rules, and market competition. Structural reforms in agriculture, transport, and energy will be crucial.

4. Bosnia and Herzegovina

Impact on EU Policy.

Institutional and Governance Models. Bosnia and Herzegovina’s complex political structure (with a three-member presidency representing different ethnic groups) will challenge EU cohesion policies. Its integration will necessitate significant reforms to ensure governance efficiency, which could influence EU governance mechanisms regarding minority rights and federalism.

Regional Security and Stability. Bosnia’s accession will help strengthen the EU’s engagement in the Western Balkans, enhancing the region’s stability by promoting inter-ethnic cooperation and providing solutions to unresolved conflicts, particularly in terms of nationalistic and ethnic divisions.

Impact of EU Policy on Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Constitutional and Political Reforms. EU pressure on Bosnia’s political reforms will focus on strengthening the rule of law, promoting democratic governance, and enhancing administrative efficiency. These reforms will impact the functioning of the state and its legal and electoral systems.

Economic Development. EU’s regional development policies and financial assistance will stimulate Bosnia’s economy, particularly in infrastructure, public administration, and social services. Bosnia will also need to align its economic practices with EU rules, especially in trade, competition, and labor markets.

5. Montenegro

Impact on EU Policy.

Environmental and Green Policy. Montenegro, with its natural beauty and significant biodiversity, will likely influence EU environmental policies, especially regarding conservation, sustainable tourism, and natural resource management. Its proximity to the Adriatic Sea will be a key factor in EU maritime and environmental policy.

Regional Diplomacy. Montenegro’s EU accession will contribute to strengthening EU’s influence in the Balkans and ensure greater stability in a region that has historically faced political tensions. Montenegro’s foreign policy alignment will also be crucial in defining EU policies toward the wider region.

Impact of EU Policy on Montenegro.

Judicial and Institutional Reform. EU pressure on judicial reforms and anti-corruption measures will shape the country’s governance model. The need for improving public administration, political pluralism, and the independence of institutions will guide Montenegro’s development trajectory.

Economic Integration. Montenegro’s integration will promote stronger economic ties with the EU, with increased investments in sectors such as tourism, services, and energy. Alignment with EU’s trade and competition regulations will modernize its market economy.

6. Kosovo

Impact on EU Policy.

Regional Stability. Kosovo’s integration will bolster EU policies aimed at promoting peace, security, and democratic governance in the Western Balkans.

Foreign Policy Alignment. Kosovo will influence EU foreign relations with the Balkans, Serbia, and other global actors by aligning its policies with EU norms.

Cultural and Governance Influence. Kosovo’s unique political and social challenges can offer the EU valuable insights into post-conflict governance, minority rights, and peacebuilding.

Impact of EU Policy on Kosovo.

Political and Legal Reforms. EU policies will necessitate Kosovo to implement extensive reforms in its political, legal, and institutional systems to meet EU standards.

Economic Modernization and Infrastructure. EU financial aid and economic integration will push Kosovo to modernize its economy, create jobs, and enhance infrastructure.

Social Cohesion and Minority Rights. EU policies will promote social inclusion, interethnic cooperation, and the protection of minority rights, addressing Kosovo’s multiethnic makeup.

In 2025, Kosovo’s continued alignment with the EU’s political and economic framework, as well as the progress of other Western Balkan countries in the accession process, will contribute to the EU’s long-term strategy of integrating the entire region. This will promote regional cooperation, economic growth, and political stability across the Balkans, aligning with the EU’s goal of being a global player in promoting democracy, the rule of law, and sustainable development.

The countries in the EU accession process will have an important impact on EU policies, especially in the realms of foreign policy, regional stability, trade, and the green transition. They will bring diversity to EU discussions, especially in terms of governance models, ethnic relations, and economic integration. On the other hand, EU policies will guide these countries in implementing necessary reforms across various sectors such as the rule of law, human rights, democratic governance, and economic modernization. Their integration into the EU will not only benefit their own development but also contribute significantly to the EU’s cohesion, influence, and global standing