This is our life and these are our duties!

The economic recovery is already losing momentum, partly due to Omicron-influenced external market outages and mostly due to the war in Ukraine.

In this period of year, international rating agencies lowered our growth forecast up to 3.2 percent for 2022, and in in almost in same growth rate also for 2023. This shows that the economic outlook has deteriorated significantly, mainly due to the consequences of imports, which have very badly provoked the Albanian economic structure. And defects were evidenced the same as in large military exercises, where the readiness for extreme cases of integrity breach is tested. Inflation, financial constraints and frequent blockages of the chains of the economic mechanism are aggravating the everyday activity day by day.

As a result, perhaps the forecast for slowing economic rates has not stopped yet and it is likely that a further slowdown in growth for 2022 and 2023 can be predicted. Fortunately, in all these forecasts will be mentioned only for economic growth, although that it will not be as much as predicted at the beginning of 2022.

The Albanian economy, and specifically the Kosovar economy, which is facing tangible reductions in consumption rates and trade turnover will not only include net importers of food and fuel, but will reach everywhere the reaction from other sectors will be equivalent or close, because of facing with rising costs driven by energy crisis, but also modified by greed and insecurity.

Higher uncertainty and momentary gains are not enough to compensate for an overall economic slowdown, albeit largely driven by war, but with not the same damage to activities and individuals.

At the same time, higher energy and food prices are increasing inflationary pressures, snatching household real incomes, especially of poor’s. But, in conditions when the sources of income are with a very small part increase and partial enough to be enough for the whole consumer society, there will most likely be an even stronger reduction of consumption in general, and specially for the products of tourist services, but also for other services.

Production is now expected to take even longer to return to its pre-pandemic trend, as cuts in various activities and disconnection from pandemic profiling will be more at the expense of those groups that are the first to face the shocking effects of the market and the economy, which are mainly women and young people.

As food prices fluctuate as sometimes visible and sometimes invisible threats, in fact food insecurity as part of the panic is spreading slowly, but further advancing. And reacting with measures beyond the statements of members appointed by the Government to speak on behalf of of boards seems that institutions are not ready yet, or have many road ahead to make up for the tangible and consistent result.

The fight against inflation should be the main objective to restore market security and consumer confidence.

Inflation has already entered a trajectory that can be both a threat to financial stability and a fairly large tax on ordinary people struggling to make a living. The biggest risk from inflation is not only what it is affecting now in daily life, but given the inability to pull it off from our market, as well as inflation seem to be relying heavily on existing dirty money and those that will come from political projects, like fiscal amnesty can make inflation the most entrenched and difficult phenomenon to control.

In the face of this challenge, the Bank of Albania must feel present, as this is its field of action and in this period and then it must act decisively, staying on track to measure the pulse of the economy more often than before situate. All this is worth considering that he is doing his job, but also to adapt monetary policy in a dedicated way. And, if in quiet periods Bank of Albania has communicated a few times, already when the situation is bad it should intensify its public appearances and increase its presence.

Numerous challenges demand from the interested public to know about the full measures of available financial market instruments, related to the concerns of businesses and individuals to increase the cost of loans, but also to be at the forefront in terms of exchange rate flexibility, including in this case the measures for managing the capital flow from the implementation of the fiscal amnesty and the activation of the production and trade of cannabis. The resilient response in such circumstances is a necessity for such a situation where financial reason has given way to the benefit of the day.

Meanwhile, the rather difficult task of public finances in addressing the increased debt raises the need that expenditures should be carefully prioritized and for each month, breaking the “code” of the budget monitoring routine and using projects that have not performed for turned into social programs for the most vulnerable social groups and sectors of economy.

In this fiscal policy approach, tactically tasks should be set to establish tax justice in the market on a sound basis, as a policy based on the main principles of taxation can help recreate the space needed to get a little “the nose” above the water, and to breathe new life into the budget deficit without compromising the sustainability of public debt.

Although these steps are difficult to take, it is clear that they alone will not lead to a sustainable and comprehensive recovery. Steps that will help move forward require major structural transformations that are taking place, but at a slow pace that makes them lose effectiveness and meet expectations.

The only effective “cure” for these risks is cooperation between the parties without political differences and provincial bias and prejudice.

It is our only hope for a fairer and more resilient future.

And this is our life!

These are our tasks!