Public investment portfolio analysis, 2026-2029

For the first time, the ALTAX research center has published an in-depth analysis of the public investment portfolio in Albania, shedding light on the structural and financial challenges of strategic projects for the period 2026–2029.

This document analyzes the Albanian public investment portfolio according to the Priority Policy Document (PPD) for the periods 2026–2028 and 2027–2029, covering 86 and 121 projects with a total official value of €11,251,273,745 and €14,834,486,864 respectively according to the Council of Ministers No. 91/2025 and No. 145/2026.

Below are the main points and new developments brought by this study:

1. “Overload” of the system, more than double the real possibilities

The most alarming finding of the report is systemic overprogramming. The planned portfolio is 2.25 times larger than the real financial capacity of the sectoral strategies. While the state has a capacity for about 7.38 billion euros, the list of projects (DPP) reaches 16.6 billion euros, creating a “hole” of 9.2 billion euros that endangers fiscal stability and increases pressure on public debt.

2. Maturity status for implementation, with only 36% of projects ready

Although the list of projects is long, the report reveals that:

Only 36% of the total value (about 5.29 billion euros) belongs to projects that are fully mature and ready for implementation.

The remaining 64% carries a high risk of delays, cost overruns or non-implementation.

At historical execution rates (~680 million euros/year), it would take over 20 years to implement the current portfolio.

3. Project Stagnation (Full-Matching Analysis)

A methodological innovation of this report is the direct comparison of projects between two periods (2026-2028 and 2027-2029). The results show a stagnation in 73% of projects, which have not undergone any progress in their technical or financial status.

4. Energy and Transport “plague” the social sectors

The portfolio is massively dominated by Transport and Energy (58% of the total value). On the other hand, vital sectors such as education, health and social protection remain underweight, accounting for less than 5% of the financial weight of investments.

5. Proposals for reforming the programming and implementation of investment projects

To get out of this cycle of “wish lists”, ALTAX recommends:

Implementing a binding fiscal ceiling for priority policy documents.

The creation of an independent Public Investment Management Unit (PIM) within the Ministry of Finance.

The clear separation between “Core Projects” and “Pipeline”.

The prohibition of including projects in the budget without a clear financing agreement.

This report serves as a call to policymakers and international institutions to