What does the Fiscal Package for 2026 bring?

Some of the main measures proposed in the 2026 fiscal package are as follows:

• No general increase in taxes or new taxes is planned for 2026.
• Increase in the minimum wage: from around 40,000 lek to approximately 50,000 lek per month starting January 1, 2026.
• Support scheme for farmers: a 10% VAT compensation on agricultural inputs aimed at formalization and reducing production costs.
• Revaluation of real estate: the tax on profit from property sales is proposed to be reduced to 5% from the current 15%.
• Write-off of older tax and customs obligations (e.g., up to December 31, 2014) to ease the burden on businesses.
• Tax procedures targeting formalization (e.g., self-declaration for the self-employed, reduction of cash payments, improved administration).

What is Positive?

• Focus on formalization, measures targeting agricultural inputs, tax systems, and the unified tax package can help expand the tax base and reduce informality.
• Improvement in workers’ conditions increasing the minimum wage is good news for the workforce and can improve living standards.
• Fiscal stability, the government’s intention not to increase the tax burden amid economic uncertainty is positive; if implemented correctly, it can encourage a better business and investment climate.
• Support for agriculture, the 10% VAT compensation helps make the sector more competitive and increases formalization, with long-term effects.

Where are the Uncertainties and Criticisms?

• Budgetary numbers and impacts, even though no new taxes are expected, some measures have a cost for the budget (e.g., the 10% VAT compensation for farmers is estimated at ~1.5 billion lek).
• Duration and implementation, announcing measures is one thing, successfully implementing them is another; for example, property revaluation and changes in tax procedures require administrative capacity.
• Need for transparency and consultation, the fiscal package has not been presented in Parliament alongside the budget, raising concerns about transparency and impact analysis.
• Fiscal risk remains high, if revenues do not meet expectations (e.g., from formalization or economic growth), the minimum wage increase could put pressure on the budget or require future tax hikes.
• Impact on specific sectors, while some sectors benefit, others may feel the weight of changes, e.g., the real estate sector or businesses with different tax treatment.

Sectoral Overview

The 2026 fiscal package can be described as a combination of stability and targeted relief for key sectors:

a. Agriculture and Agro-processing, the return of the 10% VAT compensation reduces input costs, encourages formalization, and improves farmers’ liquidity. It may increase sales declaration and formal contracting, making domestic production more competitive and sustainable. Success depends on tax administration capacity and control over real invoicing to avoid abuse.

b. Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) benefit from no new taxes, creating fiscal stability, and write-off of old obligations, freeing financial space. The minimum wage increase adds cost pressure but encourages formalization and reduces penalty burdens. Overall effect is neutral to slightly positive, but impact on low-margin sectors should be monitored.

c. Workers, the minimum wage increase to 50,000 lek raises living standards and may stimulate consumption, but increases pressure on employers, especially in small businesses. Measures protect the workforce and reduce inequality but may not be accompanied by immediate productivity gains and could increase informal employment in some cases.

d. Real Estate and Construction, property revaluation reduces the tax on sales profits to 5% and increases market liquidity, encouraging previously restricted transactions. However, there is a risk of artificial price increases and speculation, especially in urban areas. Careful control of records and prices remains essential.

e. Tax Administration and Formalization, procedural changes target easier self-declarations, reduced cash usage, and stronger controls. This increases potential long-term revenues and reduces informal activity but requires sufficient capacity and digital investment to avoid overloading the administration and SMEs.

f. Macroeconomic perspective, the package is conservative and does not raise the tax burden, providing security for investors and businesses. However, it does not address structural issues such as public spending efficiency or tax evasion. Wage increases and agricultural compensations entail costs that must be managed, so the full fiscal impact will only be seen during implementation.

The 2026 Fiscal Package is moderate and non-disruptive, focusing on:

• Minimum wage increase
• Formalization
• Agricultural relief
• Activation of the real estate market
• Reduction of old business debts

It does not introduce deep reforms but provides stability and direct benefits to workers, farmers, and SMEs.