Is the current construction stock sufficient for a monthly influx of ≥ 1 Million Visitors?

To assess whether the current stock of buildings is sufficient to support an expected monthly influx of ≥ 1 million visitors, several key factors must be considered, including accommodation capacities 🏨, infrastructure 🚍, and service requirements that will arise as a result of this influx.

Current construction, including hotels, tourism-oriented apartments, and additional lodging facilities, may provide a certain number of places for visitor accommodation.

This stock includes:

👉 The number of hotel rooms and lodging capacities. If there is sufficient stock to accommodate a significant portion of visitors, we must assess how many rooms are available for tourists.

👉 If the influx occurs during peak tourist seasons (summer, holidays, etc.) 🌞🎉, demand will be higher than during other times of the year. Meanwhile, for a sustained monthly flow, infrastructure must be resilient over longer periods.

Supporting services and infrastructure

Accommodation is only part of the equation. Other infrastructures, such as:

🚗 Roads, airports, and transportation are equally important, as they are needed to transport tourists to and within the country, as well as for mobility within cities and tourist zones.

💡 Public utilities and energy are also essential. Visitors require water 🚰, electricity ⚡, internet 🌐, and other services, which must be prepared for a high-volume influx.

The current construction stock can be a useful base to support a large number of visitors, but it will be insufficient without rapid investments and developments to create more accommodation and infrastructure capacity. To handle a monthly influx of 1 million visitors, construction and infrastructure must be expanded, more accommodation opportunities created, and the necessary resources ensured to support such a high tourism flow.

Calculating what needs to be built for 1 million monthly visitors

To estimate what must be built to accommodate a monthly influx of 1 million visitors, we take into account several factors such as the number of hotel rooms, lodging capacity, and the average length of stay of tourists.

🔢 Calculation Steps:

🕰 Average tourist stay is assumed to be 5 days.

📊 Daily tourist count: With over 1 million visitors per month, this translates into an average of 33,300 visitors per day.

🏨 Required rooms: Assuming one hotel room accommodates two people, we would need 16,670 rooms daily.

📏 Required area: If each room has an average area of 30 m², then approximately 15 km² of lodging space is needed to accommodate 1 million monthly tourists.

Current capacity vs. Expansionneeds

🛏 The current hotel capacity of 50,000 rooms and 110,000 beds can accommodate up to 660,000 visitors per month (assuming each visitor stays for 5 days). This figure is approximately 2/3 of the total demand for 1 million visitors per month.

🏡 Short-term rental apartments can host up to 300,000 tourists per month, which is about 20% of the demand for 1.5 million tourist days.

📝 Total existing capacity:
✅ Hotels = 660,000 visitors/month
✅ Short-term rental apartments = 300,000 visitors/month
➡ Total = 960,000 visitors/month

🚨 How much additional capacity is needed?
⚠ The gap between demand and current capacity is 40,000 visitors/month.

Possible solutions

🏠 Increase the number of short-term rental units: An additional 3,000 housing units are needed to fill the shortfall.
🏨 Build new hotels: 3,500 new hotel rooms with 8,000 beds are required to meet the demand.
If the tourism flow exceeds 1 million visitors per month, the current capacity is almost sufficient (96%), but an additional 40,000 beds are needed to fully accommodate the influx. This can be achieved either by expanding the supply of short-term rental apartments or by building new hotels.