Businesses and consumers under price pressure in September 2025

According to the latest INSTAT data, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the period January–September 2025 recorded a year-on-year increase of around 2.3–2.4% compared to the same period in 2024. This indicates a moderate but steady inflation trend, with a significant impact on the prices of basic goods.

Impact on consumers

Prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages, which make up a substantial part of household expenses, increased on average by 1.8% year-on-year, with notable fluctuations in oils, fats, milk, cheese, eggs, and meat.

Energy and basic services (rent, water, fuels) rose by 4.1%, adding pressure to households’ monthly expenses and directly affecting the cost of living.

For consumers, this translates into a higher household budget burden, particularly for low- and middle-income families.

Impact on import-export businesses

Importing businesses experienced higher purchase costs, especially for basic goods such as food and energy. Global price increases and the exchange rate of the lek against foreign currencies have affected the cost of imported goods.

Exporting businesses may partially benefit from this situation if domestic price increases do not result in a loss of competitiveness in foreign markets, but production cost pressures could limit profit margins.

The most sensitive sectors for businesses are food, energy, and services that rely on imported inputs.

Outlook and forecast

Based on the trend in the first nine months of 2025, inflation is expected to remain moderate, with price increases for basic goods in the 2–3% range by the end of the year.

The largest increases are likely in energy and rent-related services, as well as some food subcategories.

Consumers should remain attentive to daily expenses, while importing businesses need to plan cost management carefully to maintain market competitiveness.

While inflation remains moderate, it has a significant impact on citizens’ daily lives and business accounts. The rise in basic goods prices highlights the importance of household budget management and financial planning for import-export companies.