ANALYSIS OF EXCISE GOODS IMPORT PERFORMANCE

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This study analyses the import performance of key excise goods in Albania over the period 2021–2025, covering fuel (diesel and petrol), tobacco, alcohol and beer.
Drawing on official customs and fiscal data, the analysis documents cumulative fuel volume growth of +21.2%, the anomalous shock of 2022 (−9.0%) driven by the global energy crisis following Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, and the sustained recovery of 2023–2025 that culminated in record-high levels.
The structural seasonality of the system with a January-to-August variance exceeding 40% necessitates active budget liquidity management and SARIMA-based forecasting models. The super-unitary excise elasticity relative to GDP (1.94–3.74) during the recovery phase confirms the fiscal accelerator function of the excise system.
The study also identifies critical structural weaknesses: asymmetric dependence on fuel (93–95% of total volume), real-value erosion from inflation due to the specific (non-ad-valorem) nature of excise rates, fuel informality and smuggling, and a wide gap between Albanian rates and EU minimums (−55% to −78% by category).
The European integration framework and global energy transition (Green Deal, fleet electrification, CBAM) present fundamental medium- and long-term challenges. Reforms are recommended across three-time horizons: automatic rate indexation, tax base broadening, EMCS implementation, and diversification towards environmental excise duties.

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Description

Key Findings

• Total excise goods import volume grew 21.2% from 2021 to 2025 (fuel +21.2%)

• 2022 recorded an anomalous fuel decline (-9.0%) due to the global energy crisis and post-war effects

• 2025 was the highest-performing year across all major categories

• Excise elasticity relative to GDP is positive but sub-unitary during downturns and super-unitary during recovery

• Clear seasonality with a July–August peak and January–February trough requires specialised financial planning

Albania’s excise system rests on four main pillars: fuel (diesel and petrol), tobacco, alcohol and beer. During 2021–2025 this system demonstrated considerable resilience, recovering from the shocks of 2022 and reaching record levels in 2025. However, deeper analysis reveals structural weaknesses that threaten the long-term sustainability of excise revenues, particularly in the context of European integration and major global transformations.

Fuel dominates the structure with around 93–95% of total volume, exposing the system to dependence on a single commodity group and international oil prices. The tobacco market, though modest in volume, shows steady growth, while alcohol and beer demonstrate a strong correlation with tourism and seasonal consumption

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