This report by ALTAX Observatory analyzes a profound historical shift in the Albanian economy: the transition from an economy attracting foreign capital toward a growing source of private capital outflows. During the 2015–2025 period, inward Foreign Direct Investment (IHD) remained robust, reaching EUR 1,635 million in 2025. However, capital outflows (ODI – Outward Direct Investment) increased rapidly, moving from symbolic levels to EUR 302 million in 2025, mainly channelled into real estate abroad.

Key points

• The stock of real estate owned abroad by Albanian residents increased from EUR 6.5 million (2022) to EUR 766.5 million (2023).
• Annual ODI flows for assets reached EUR 241 million (2024) and EUR 302 million (2025).
  Inward IHD still dominates, but with a large share of reinvested earnings (over 50%), signalling a lack of productive diversification.
• A paradoxical cycle is emerging: importing capital for domestic construction while exporting capital for property purchases abroad (mainly Italy, Greece, and Spain).

The analysis shows that this model is deepening the structural asymmetry of the Albanian economy, favouring financialization and real estate at the expense of productive investment. Projections indicate that, without reforms, under the baseline scenario ODI could reach EUR 443 million by 2030, while under the pessimistic scenario it could approach EUR 607 million, a level that may significantly erode the domestic capital base.

The report recommends an integrated package of policy measures: strengthening beneficial ownership transparency, implementing rigorous due diligence for real estate transactions, increasing the capacities of the FIA, and introducing industrial reforms to redirect capital toward high value-added sectors.

Main findings

► Albania is transitioning from an IHD-recipient economy toward a hybrid model characterized by rapid private capital outflows (ODI), mainly in the form of real estate investments abroad.

► The stock of properties owned abroad by Albanians increased 117 times within a single year (from EUR 6.5 million in 2022 to EUR 766.5 million in 2023).

► Annual ODI asset flows reached EUR 241 million (2024) and EUR 302 million (2025), marking a dramatic increase after 2021.

► A paradoxical cycle exists: inward IHD mainly finances construction and real estate domestically, while Albanian private capital is flowing massively abroad to purchase properties (Italy, Greece, Spain).

► The largest share of inward IHD (over 50%) now comes from reinvested earnings, signalling a lack of new productive (greenfield) investments.

► Without intervention, the baseline scenario projects ODI at EUR 443 million by 2030, while the pessimistic scenario reaches EUR 607 million, risking the erosion of the domestic productive base.

Recommended policies

1. Strengthening transparency — Establishment of a National Beneficial Ownership Register for all companies and properties, with limited public access.
2. Rigorous Due Diligence — Mandatory implementation of advanced KYC procedures for all real estate transactions above EUR 50,000.
3. Capacity enhancement — Strengthening the FIA with additional staff, technology, and international cooperation.
4. Fiscal reform — Progressive taxation of real estate assets abroad and mandatory annual reporting by Albanian fiscal residents.
5. Capital redirection — An incentive package for productive and export-oriented domestic investments (priority sectors: ICT, renewable energy, processed agriculture).
6. Flow monitoring — Detailed quarterly ODI reporting by destination and asset type