WB6 Corruption Cost Index 2025

WB6 Corruption Cost Index (WB6-CCI) estimates the annual cost of structural corruption in the Western Balkans at 5.9-7.6 billion euros, with a reference value of 6.7 billion euros according to the medium scenario.

This translates to 3.5-4.6% of total regional GDP of approximately 168 billion euros. The instrument is built on the dynamic ALTAX model, previously verified and published for Albania, and extends it comparatively to the other five countries of the region through a weighted methodological framework with six variables calibrated from international institutional sources.

Serbia presents the highest absolute regional risk, with annual costs of 2.9-3.5 billion euros, equivalent to 48% of the WB6-CCI total.

Bosnia and Herzegovina carries critical institutional risk, where the governance system built on the Dayton Agreement amplifies corruption through reform blockage and fragmentation of accountability.

Albania functions as the WB6-CCI reference country, with verified costs of 3.1-4.0% of GDP, while Kosovo records the highest relative risk to GDP compared to the size of its economy.

The analysis of capital allocation reveals that the fundamental effect of corruption lies not in the direct theft of public funds, but in the systematic redirection of capital — public and private — towards economic rents and political connections at the expense of productive investments.

Empirical literature confirms that the 26-point CPI difference between the region and the European average translates into lost FDI potential of 3-5 billion euros annually, which never arrives because investors assess the institutional risk as unacceptable.

The impact on European convergence is severe and cumulative. The region loses 0.8-1.4 percentage points of real GDP growth every year, which spread over the 2025-2035 decade generates an unfulfilled cumulative difference of 18-28 billion euros at the regional level. Serbia is delayed by 12-18 years in convergence with European standards, Bosnia by 15-22 years. Under-absorption of European funds, which captures only 45-55% of available amounts, brings an additional annual loss of 800 million–1.2 billion euros.

WB6-CCI is methodologically distinct from existing regional and global instruments. The Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) measures expert opinion, not cost. EBRD’s BEEPS is based on business surveys and is sectoral in nature. The World Governance Indicators (WGI) are a synthesized aggregate of institutional perceptions.

WB6-CCI offers, for the first time in the region, a monetary measurement based on national fiscal, macroeconomic and institutional data, integrated into three complementary sub-indexes.

The main SMART strategic recommendations cover the annual publication of WB6-CCI as a regional monitoring instrument, adoption of the OCDS standard in public procurement, conditioning 30% of Growth Plan funds on measurable anti-corruption indicators, independent auditing of state-owned enterprises and real strengthening of judicial independence.

Every euro effectively invested in anti-corruption reforms generates 3-5 euros additional GDP over a decade, according to World Bank estimates.