{"id":25442,"date":"2026-03-10T08:16:48","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T07:16:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/altax.al\/?p=25442"},"modified":"2026-04-11T20:29:44","modified_gmt":"2026-04-11T18:29:44","slug":"multi-year-performance-challenges-and-weaknesses-of-the-tax-system-in-albania-2015-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/altax.al\/en\/multi-year-performance-challenges-and-weaknesses-of-the-tax-system-in-albania-2015-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Multi-year performance, challenges and weaknesses of the tax system in Albania (2015\u20132025)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

General trends show nominal growth in tax revenues (from 342 billion to 716 billion, CAGR[1]<\/a> ~7.7%), but with a decline in 2020 due to COVID-19.
The tax burden has evolved from ~23.8% in 2015 to ~27% in 2025 (net tax revenues), but it remains low compared to the Balkan average (~30\u201335%). The main challenge even after one decade remains informality (~1\/3 of the economy), broad exemptions and weaknesses in the enforcement of legislation, which continue to limit fiscal potential.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I. Central Tax Revenues (From Taxes and Customs)
This category increases from 259 billion to 496 billion (CAGR ~6.7%), driven by consumption, wages and reforms, but exposed to cycles (decline -8% in 2020).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Item<\/strong><\/td>Value 2015<\/strong><\/td>Value 2025<\/strong><\/td>CAGR (%)<\/strong><\/td>Average YoY Growth (%)<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/thead>
Value Added Tax (VAT)<\/td>125,783<\/td>227,261<\/td>6.1<\/td>6.5<\/td><\/tr>
Corporate Income Tax<\/td>24,968<\/td>58,547<\/td>8.9<\/td>10.2<\/td><\/tr>
Excises<\/td>39,027<\/td>69,599<\/td>5.9<\/td>6.0<\/td><\/tr>
Personal Income Tax<\/td>29,661<\/td>82,532<\/td>10.8<\/td>11.5<\/td><\/tr>
National and Other Taxes<\/td>33,647<\/td>48,799<\/td>3.8<\/td>4.2<\/td><\/tr>
Customs Duties<\/td>5,796<\/td>9,486<\/td>5.0<\/td>5.3<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Value Added Tax (VAT) shows steady growth during the analyzed period, with a temporary decline during 2019\u20132020 linked to the economic impacts of the pandemic. After 2020 a noticeable recovery is observed, mainly driven by the expansion of the tourism and construction sectors. This tax remains one of the main sources of fiscal revenue, contributing around 8.5\u20139% of GDP, although it continues to be affected by the level of informality in the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate Income Tax shows a more volatile dynamic. In 2020 a sharp decline of around 22% was recorded as a result of the economic slowdown, while in 2023 a peak was reached with significant growth. After this period a slight correction was observed in 2024, reflecting economic cycles and changes in business activity. Nevertheless, overall this tax has benefited from reforms in the corporate taxation system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Excises have shown relatively stable growth over the last decade, with a slight decrease during 2020. After the pandemic, excise revenues increased mainly due to the consumption of fuel and tobacco products. In the future, this fiscal category presents potential for further growth through reforms related to environmental policies and the taxation of products with environmental impact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Personal Income Tax is the category with the highest growth during the analyzed period. Although in 2020 there was a significant decline of around 27%, after this period a rapid recovery was recorded, driven by increases in the minimum wage, the expansion of the labor market and processes of economic formalization. Currently this tax contributes around 2\u20133% of GDP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

National and Other Taxes have recorded more modest and relatively stable growth during the period. A stronger increase was registered in 2024, mainly related to changes in fiscal policies and the introduction of several new taxes, particularly within the framework of environmental reforms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Customs Duties have shown gradual growth over the years, although their share in total revenues remains relatively low. In 2020 a slight decline was recorded due to the contraction of international trade during the pandemic, while afterwards revenues stabilized, contributing around 0.4% of GDP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

II. Revenues from Local Government
Increase from 11.7 billion to 40.9 billion (CAGR ~13.4%), but with a small contribution (~5\u20136% of total tax revenues). Driven by decentralization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Item<\/strong><\/td>Value 2015<\/strong><\/td>Value 2025<\/strong><\/td>CAGR (%)<\/strong><\/td>Average YoY Growth (%)<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/thead>
Property Tax (Buildings)<\/td>3,921<\/td>8,144<\/td>7.6<\/td>8.0<\/td><\/tr>
Small Business Tax<\/td>2,033<\/td>36<\/td>-33.8 (decline)<\/td>-35.0<\/td><\/tr>
Local Taxes<\/td>5,746<\/td>32,731<\/td>18.9<\/td>20.5<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Property Tax (Buildings) has recorded steady growth during the analyzed period. Although in 2020 a slight decline was observed due to the impact of the pandemic on economic activity and fiscal administration, revenues from this tax increased gradually in the following years. A more noticeable increase was recorded in 2024, linked to changes in the taxation methodology which bases the assessment on the market value of real estate. In perspective, this tax is considered to have the potential to increase its contribution to public finances to around 0.9% of GDP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Small Business Tax experienced a very strong decline during the analyzed period. After 2015, revenues from this tax fell significantly as a result of fiscal reforms aimed at easing the burden on small businesses, as well as due to the relatively high level of informality in this segment of the economy. As a result, this fiscal category has almost completely lost its weight in total local revenues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Local Taxes represent the fastest growth among the analyzed categories. Revenues from these taxes increased significantly during the last decade, roughly doubling every three to four years. In 2020 a slight decline of about 6% was recorded, related to economic restrictions during the pandemic. However, after this period revenues recovered quickly, mainly driven by the development of the tourism sector and the growth of economic activities at the local level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

III. Revenues from Special Funds
Increase from 71.7 billion to 179.1 billion (CAGR ~9.6%), about 24% of the total in 2025 and reflecting formal employment and wages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Item<\/strong><\/td>Value 2015<\/strong><\/td>Value 2025<\/strong><\/td>CAGR (%)<\/strong><\/td>Average YoY Growth (%)<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/thead>
Social Insurance<\/td>60,148<\/td>154,666<\/td>9.9<\/td>10.2<\/td><\/tr>
Health Insurance<\/td>9,595<\/td>23,543<\/td>9.4<\/td>9.8<\/td><\/tr>
Revenues for Compensation in Value to Owners<\/td>1,983<\/td>939<\/td>-7.2 (decline)<\/td>-6.5<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Revenues from Social Insurance have recorded strong growth during the analyzed period, reflecting the gradual expansion of the labor market and the increase in formal employment. Although in 2020 a slight decline was observed due to the economic impact of the pandemic, in 2021 a significant increase of around 13.6% was recorded. In the following years the trend remained positive, supported by employment growth and the formalization of labor relations. Currently, social insurance contributions represent around 4\u20135% of Gross Domestic Product.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Health Insurance has shown steady growth over the last decade, with a moderate acceleration after the pandemic. This is related to increased awareness of healthcare expenditures and the gradual expansion of the contributor base in the health insurance scheme. The contribution of this category to public finances remains more limited, representing around 1% of GDP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, revenues for compensation in value to owners have shown a declining trend during the analyzed period. This decline is mainly related to changes in budget priorities and the gradual reduction of funds allocated for this purpose. As a result, the weight of this category in the overall structure of revenues has decreased over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysis of trends, challenges and weaknesses of the tax system
Tax revenues have increased consistently (CAGR 7.7%), doubling nominally since 2015, thanks to the post-COVID recovery (+20% growth in 2021) and sectors such as tourism (~25% of GDP in 2023), construction and remittances (~8\u201310% of GDP).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, growth is uneven.
Indirect taxes (VAT, excises) dominate (~60% of tax revenues), while direct taxes (corporate, personal) have grown faster (CAGR >8%), reflecting formalization. Special funds have grown from social contributions, but pensions account for >1\/3 of expenditures, limiting investments in education and infrastructure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Evolution of the tax burden (tax-to-GDP ratio)
The tax burden (tax revenues \/ GDP) changed from 23.8% in 2015 to ~27% in 2025, with an average of ~25%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This performance shows a slight improvement post-2020 (from 24.1% in 2020 to 26.3% in 2024), but it remains low compared to the Balkans (32.2%) or the EU (40.5%). The decline in 2020 reflects the fall in GDP (-3.5%), while the post-pandemic increase comes from consumption and wages. The burden is higher in indirect taxes (regressive, burdening the poor), while social contributions increase due to demographics (aging, emigration).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Year<\/strong><\/td>Net Tax Revenues (B ALL)<\/strong><\/td>GDP (B ALL, nominal)<\/strong><\/td>Tax Burden (%)<\/strong><\/td>YoY Change (%)<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/thead>
2015<\/td>342<\/td>1,434<\/td>23.8<\/td>–<\/td><\/tr>
2016<\/td>370<\/td>1,473<\/td>25.1<\/td>+5.5<\/td><\/tr>
2017<\/td>399<\/td>1,551<\/td>25.7<\/td>+2.4<\/td><\/tr>
2018<\/td>419<\/td>1,661<\/td>25.2<\/td>-1.9<\/td><\/tr>
2019<\/td>426<\/td>1,713<\/td>24.9<\/td>-1.2<\/td><\/tr>
2020<\/td>399<\/td>1,655<\/td>24.1<\/td>-3.2<\/td><\/tr>
2021<\/td>476<\/td>1,866<\/td>25.5<\/td>+5.8<\/td><\/tr>
2022<\/td>541<\/td>2,149<\/td>25.2<\/td>-1.2<\/td><\/tr>
2023<\/td>599<\/td>2,367<\/td>25.3<\/td>+0.4<\/td><\/tr>
2024<\/td>659<\/td>2,522<\/td>26.3<\/td>+3.2<\/td><\/tr>
2025<\/td>716<\/td>2,650 (proj.)<\/td>27<\/td>+5.4<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The tax burden, measured as the ratio of tax revenues to GDP, increased to 27% with a slight improvement from 26.3% in 2024, marking an annual increase of around 4.6% in relative terms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This trend is moving toward a higher fiscal burden, indicating that the government has managed to collect more revenue without visibly adding new taxes, but mainly thanks to economic growth and partial reforms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, this figure remains low compared with the Western Balkan average (around 30\u201335%) or the European Union (40%), highlighting that Albania still has room to increase fiscal efficiency without burdening citizens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite these achievements, the Albanian tax system in 2025 remains filled with challenges and structural weaknesses that hinder its full economic potential and risk long-term sustainability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Revenue growth appears positive from the outside, but internally, high informality, which accounts for about one third of the economy, creates large holes in the budget.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the World Bank Public Finance Review 2025, this informality leads to revenue losses of up to 2\u20133% of GDP each year, weakening the enforcement of tax laws and creating an uneven playing field for formal businesses. For example, in the tourism sector, as a main engine of growth in 2025, many short-term rentals remain unregistered, depriving the state of revenues that could go to public services such as education or healthcare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another major weakness is the system of broad tax exemptions and low rates, which according to the same World Bank report cause losses of around 1\u20132% of GDP through \u201ctax expenditures\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Property tax, for example, remains low at around 0.5% of GDP, while its potential could reach up to 1.4% if it were fully based on market value. This not only reduces revenues but also encourages speculation in real estate, making the economy more dependent on construction, a sector that contributed to GDP growth in 2025 but is exposed to climate risks such as floods or droughts, which could hit strongly in the coming years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Administrative weaknesses add further complexity. Corruption, excessive bureaucracy and lack of transparency continue to be major obstacles, as emphasized in the IMF Article IV Consultation 2025. Policies such as the \u201cFiscal Peace\u201d of 2025, which offers amnesty for old debts, may appear as a quick solution to increase tax compliance, but in fact risk undermining long-term trust in the system by encouraging future evasion. This creates a vicious cycle where the tax administration struggles to collect revenues while neglecting investments in technology or training for inspectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dependence on specific sectors is another worrying story. Tourism and construction drove growth in 2025, but these sectors are sensitive to youth emigration, where employment among the 15\u201329 age group remains below 20%, and to climate change. As the World Bank warns, a prolonged drought or flooding could reduce tourism revenues by up to 10\u201315%, hitting the budget. This dependence highlights the need for diversification, such as in agribusiness or technology, but the current tax system does not provide sufficient incentives for these sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Demographic pressures make the picture even darker. By 2060, about 34% of the population is expected to be above retirement age, while only 46% of the labor force contributes to social schemes, creating a gap that threatens the sustainability of pensions and healthcare. In 2025, pensions and social transfers accounted for around one third of the budget, leaving little room for investment in education (where efficiency could increase by 34% with better allocations) or infrastructure (with potential +18.6% in the efficiency index). This lack of efficiency in spending means that even though revenues are increasing, public benefits remain limited, increasing inequality and encouraging further emigration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How do revenues respond to economic growth?
The average fiscal elasticity for the period 2015\u20132025 is around 1.54, indicating that revenues have grown faster than GDP in most years. This reflects a gradual improvement in fiscal efficiency, but with large fluctuations due to events such as the COVID-19 pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Below is the summary table with annual data, where elasticity is calculated for each year:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Year<\/strong><\/td>Net Tax Revenues (B ALL)<\/strong><\/td>Revenue Growth (%)<\/strong><\/td>Nominal GDP Growth (%)<\/strong><\/td>Fiscal Elasticity<\/strong><\/td>Brief Explanation<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/thead>
2016<\/td>370<\/td>8.06<\/td>2.72<\/td>2.96<\/td>Early tax administration reforms and formalization<\/td><\/tr>
2017<\/td>399<\/td>7.77<\/td>5.30<\/td>1.47<\/td>Impact from excise increases and fiscal policy<\/td><\/tr>
2018<\/td>419<\/td>5.19<\/td>7.09<\/td>0.73<\/td>GDP growth from tourism\/construction without proportional revenues<\/td><\/tr>
2019<\/td>426<\/td>1.65<\/td>3.13<\/td>0.53<\/td>Consumption slowdown<\/td><\/tr>
2020<\/td>399<\/td>-6.48<\/td>-3.39<\/td>1.91<\/td>Pandemic impact<\/td><\/tr>
2021<\/td>476<\/td>19.30<\/td>12.75<\/td>1.51<\/td>Strong post-COVID recovery<\/td><\/tr>
2022<\/td>541<\/td>13.82<\/td>15.17<\/td>0.91<\/td>Inflation and tourism dependence<\/td><\/tr>
2023<\/td>599<\/td>10.59<\/td>10.14<\/td>1.04<\/td>Balanced growth<\/td><\/tr>
2024<\/td>659<\/td>10.05<\/td>6.55<\/td>1.54<\/td>Formalization in tourism and construction<\/td><\/tr>
2025<\/td>716<\/td>8.72<\/td>3.09<\/td>2.82<\/td>Strong collection efficiency<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This table clearly shows that elasticity was higher during reform and recovery periods (2016, 2021, 2025), while it declined during periods of economic slowdown or crises. If elasticity remains above 1 in the long term, Albania could increase the tax burden toward 30% of GDP (as in the EU), allowing better financing of public services. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Distribution of contributions in the evolution of the tax system
The evolution of tax revenues does not come only from economic growth, but from a combination of factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Based on IMF and World Bank analyses (inferred from specific increases in categories such as VAT or personal taxes), we can divide the contribution into three main parts: (a) improved administration (around 40%), (b) fiscal policy (30%) and (c) macroeconomic indicators (30%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This distribution is an estimate, but it helps explain what has driven the increase from 342 billion lek in 2015 to 716 billion in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus about ~40% of the evolution comes from improved administration<\/em>. This part comes from improvements in law enforcement, such as the fight against informality (which accounts for ~1\/3 of the economy) and new technologies for tax collection. For example, the strong growth in VAT (from 126 billion to 227 billion) and personal taxes (from 30 billion to 83 billion) reflects the formalization of businesses in Tirana and other cities. The IMF estimates that better administration has added 0.5\u20131% of GDP in revenues by reducing evasion in sectors such as tourism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

About ~30% comes from fiscal policy.<\/em> This includes government reforms such as the Medium-Term Revenue Strategy 2024\u20132027, which introduced carbon taxes on coal, increases in excises on tobacco and property taxation based on market value. These aim to add 0.9% of GDP in revenues and make the system more progressive. However, measures such as \u201cFiscal Peace\u201d (amnesty for old debts in 2025) may reduce compliance by 0.2\u20130.5%, encouraging long-term evasion and creating inequality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

About ~30% comes from macroeconomic indicators<\/em>. External factors such as annual GDP growth (~3.5% on average), inflation (2\u20133%) and the appreciation of the lek (+30% against the euro since 2015) have had direct effects. The appreciation has increased imports and customs duties, while remittances (~8\u201310% of GDP) and tourism have boosted consumption, generating VAT and excise revenues. However, these factors make the system dependent on global cycles such as the energy crisis or migration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This distribution shows that improved administration has been the main driver, but without continuous reforms the macro component may dominate and create volatility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ultimately, the story of the Albanian tax system 2015\u20132025 is one of partial progress against a background of deep challenges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Medium-Term Revenue Strategy 2024\u20132027 offers hope, aiming to increase revenues by up to 0.9% of GDP through measures such as carbon taxes on coal or higher excises on tobacco. However, the lack of fundamental reforms in the administration and the inconsistent fight against informality keep the tax system dependent on a cycle where economic growth does not translate into sustainable welfare for citizens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

[1]<\/a> CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) shows how much percent a value has increased (or decreased) on average each year over a period of time, assuming that growth occurs compounded (i.e. each year’s growth is calculated on the value of the previous year).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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