{"id":23765,"date":"2025-10-28T17:44:33","date_gmt":"2025-10-28T16:44:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/altax.al\/?p=23765"},"modified":"2025-10-28T19:22:07","modified_gmt":"2025-10-28T18:22:07","slug":"the-strength-of-lek-and-the-paradox-of-albanias-foreign-exchange-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/altax.al\/en\/the-strength-of-lek-and-the-paradox-of-albanias-foreign-exchange-market\/","title":{"rendered":"The strength of Lek and the paradox of Albania\u2019s Foreign Exchange market"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

A typical day at the foreign exchange offices in downtown Tirana on 28 October 2025<\/strong> reveals more than any statistical report. While the official euro exchange rate stands at around 96.8 lek<\/strong>, several currency exchange offices in the physical market offer 96.4 lek<\/strong> for each euro in cash. This difference has become common, reflecting the persistent divide between the formal and informal segments<\/strong> of Albania\u2019s currency market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This phenomenon represents only part of the paradox currently shaping the Albanian economy: the national currency appears strong in official data, yet in the real economy, this \u201cstrength\u201d is not felt in terms of living standards or competitiveness<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Interventions by the Bank of Albania<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In December 2024<\/strong>, the Bank of Albania announced the largest monetary intervention in its history, purchasing \u20ac930 million<\/strong> from the market in a single year\u2014an average of \u20ac77.5 million per month<\/strong>. The declared objective was to stabilize the exchange rate and support exporters facing an overvalued lek<\/strong>. During the first half of 2025, the intervention pace continued, with more than \u20ac800 million<\/strong> additionally withdrawn from circulation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, while financial institutions were absorbing foreign currency from the banks, a significant amount of euros continued to circulate outside the formal system<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Informal Currency Flows<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Along the coast, during the summer of 2025, a foreign family paid \u20ac1,200 in cash<\/strong> for a seaside apartment. The transaction never passed through any bank. The property owner pocketed the money and exchanged it at a local exchange office, no invoice, no trace. The same day, a returning emigrant brought home \u20ac5,000 in cash<\/strong>, handing it to family members to buy a used car. These funds, too, went unrecorded anywhere in the financial system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Estimates suggest that real remittances<\/strong> reach between \u20ac1.3 and \u20ac1.5 billion annually<\/strong>, several hundred million euros higher than the official figure of \u20ac1.045 billion<\/strong>. Officially, net tourism income<\/strong> stands at \u20ac2.291 billion<\/strong>, but \u20ac2.7 billion in outbound spending by Albanian citizens abroad<\/strong> narrows the actual balance. A large share of these inflows continues to circulate outside the banking system<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to ALTAX<\/strong> estimates, real emigrant remittances range from \u20ac1.3 to \u20ac1.5 billion per year<\/strong>, or \u20ac300\u2013500 million<\/strong> above official data. At the same time, tourism inflows of around \u20ac5 billion<\/strong> are substantially offset by \u20ac2.7 billion in travel spending abroad<\/strong>, resulting in a much thinner real balance than reported. A significant portion of these flows, moreover, remains outside formal financial circulation<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Impact on the Export Sector<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a garment factory near Durr\u00ebs, the owner calculates daily losses:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhen the euro was at 122 lek, I paid 100 lek to produce a shirt. Now, at 96.5 lek, I pay 126 lek for the same shirt when selling abroad. I\u2019ve lost 20% of my profit margin in two years.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The central bank\u2019s interventions keep the rate artificially higher<\/strong> in the banking system (96.8 lek), while in the real market<\/strong>, the euro trades between 96.4 and 96.5 lek<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to ALTAX analysis<\/a>, the Bank of Albania\u2019s interventions have prevented a deeper depreciation of the euro<\/strong>, yet they have not eliminated the parallel market<\/strong>, where the rate remains 0.5\u20131 lek lower<\/strong> than the official one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alternative Scenario<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A hypothetical scenario calculated by ALTAX<\/a> suggests that if the Bank\u2019s interventions had been more limited, around \u20ac320 million in 2024<\/strong>, or 35% of the actual level<\/strong>\u2014the exchange rate would have dropped to approximately 95 lek per euro<\/strong>, resulting in 8\u201310% losses<\/strong> for exporters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The data indicate that, despite record interventions, the strength of the lek is largely nominal<\/strong>[1]<\/strong><\/a>, sustained by ongoing central bank operations, while the informal market and off-bank flows<\/strong> create a parallel financial reality<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policy Implications<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The core message from the ALTAX analysis<\/a> is clear:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWithout formalizing at least 50% of informal financial flows within three years, any monetary intervention remains temporary. The strengthening of the lek without transparency and integration of real financial flows is a statistical illusion<\/strong>.<\/em>\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As citizens and businesses continue to face rising prices and shrinking profits<\/strong>, the paradox of a \u201cstrong\u201d lek persists. On paper, the national currency appears robust; in practice, purchasing power remains weak<\/strong>. The key question for policymakers remains:
How long can this equilibrium, built on a dual market, formal and informal endure without deep financial transparency reform?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

[1]<\/a> The high value of the lek against the euro and other currencies does not reflect a real strength of the Albanian economy<\/strong>, but rather results from technical or temporary factors<\/strong>, mainly the Bank of Albania\u2019s interventions<\/strong> and informal currency inflows<\/strong>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A typical day at the foreign exchange offices in downtown Tirana on 28 October 2025 reveals more than any statistical report. 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