{"id":23243,"date":"2025-09-16T18:34:24","date_gmt":"2025-09-16T16:34:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/altax.al\/?p=23243"},"modified":"2025-09-19T18:40:09","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T16:40:09","slug":"fiscal-performance-january-august-2025-shows-progress-but-structural-challenges-remain-strong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/altax.al\/en\/fiscal-performance-january-august-2025-shows-progress-but-structural-challenges-remain-strong\/","title":{"rendered":"Fiscal performance January\u2013August 2025 shows progress, but structural challenges remain strong"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Preliminary data from the Ministry of Finance for the period January\u2013August 2025 show a <strong>stable performance in revenues and spending discipline<\/strong>, but comparisons with the same period of last year and indicator analysis highlight <strong>significant challenges requiring strategic attention<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Budget revenues above plan, but structurally dependent on consumption and wages<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Total revenues for the eight-month period reached <strong>498.6 billion ALL<\/strong>, exceeding <strong>101% of the planned target<\/strong> and marking a <strong>7.3% increase<\/strong> compared to January\u2013August 2024.<br>The main growth drivers are <strong>personal income tax (+26.3%)<\/strong> and <strong>net VAT (+20.7%)<\/strong>, indicating stronger domestic consumption and partial formalization of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, the concentration of revenues on <strong>consumption and wage taxation<\/strong> creates <strong>medium-term vulnerability<\/strong>, as any slowdown in consumption or rise in inflation could significantly reduce fiscal inflows.<br>Profit tax revenues grew by only <strong>3.6%<\/strong>, signaling <strong>moderate business profitability<\/strong> and suggesting that economic growth is not yet being driven by productivity or private investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Customs administration and special funds perform, but face limitations<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Customs revenues reached <strong>99% of the plan<\/strong>, but <strong>customs duties only 92.1%<\/strong>, suggesting import restrictions or trends of tax evasion and informal activity.<br>Mining royalties achieved only <strong>84.7% of the plan<\/strong>, reflecting heavy dependence on international markets and the lack of stabilizing measures.<br>Special funds (social and health insurance) rose <strong>12.5%<\/strong>, indicating improved contribution collection.<br>Despite exceeding plans, contributor participation remains uneven, and high-informality sectors continue to threaten their stability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Public spending grows steadily, but capital investments face delays<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Total expenditures reached <strong>457.4 billion ALL<\/strong>, <strong>12.7% higher<\/strong> than January\u2013August 2024, driven by rising <strong>current spending<\/strong> and higher <strong>debt servicing costs<\/strong>.<br>Current expenditures (<strong>407.9 billion ALL, +12.1%<\/strong>) dominate the budget, leaving limited space for long-term development investments.<br>Capital expenditures increased <strong>15%<\/strong> compared to 2024 but achieved only <strong>30% of the annual plan<\/strong>, delaying their economic impact.<br>Chronic delays in capital spending not only reduce the effectiveness of fiscal policy but also increase the risk of <strong>end-year inefficient fund allocation<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Fiscal surplus maintained but declining<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The fiscal surplus for January\u2013August stands at <strong>41.2 billion ALL<\/strong>, but this is <strong>29.8% lower<\/strong> than a year earlier, reflecting <strong>rising pressure on public finances<\/strong>.<br>A lower surplus signals growing needs for emergency financing, reducing fiscal flexibility and requiring more cautious management to avoid a rise in public debt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Structural weaknesses and medium-term risks<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The economy remains sensitive to the <strong>structure of its revenues<\/strong>, showing significant reliance on <strong>consumption and wage taxation<\/strong>. This dependency increases budget risk during economic slowdowns, as any drop in consumption or wages directly affects fiscal revenues.<br>Meanwhile, <strong>low and delayed capital spending<\/strong> limits its role in fostering economic development and employment.<br>Mining royalties and customs duties remain unstable, creating revenue volatility and uncertainty for medium-term fiscal planning.<br>As <strong>current spending continues to rise<\/strong>, the growing share allocated to <strong>wages and pensions<\/strong> may restrict the government\u2019s ability to invest in strategic projects that enhance the economy\u2019s productive capacity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>In summary<\/strong>, while January\u2013August 2025 shows <strong>positive revenue performance and disciplined spending<\/strong>, delays in capital investments, a declining surplus, and heavy dependence on consumption and wages underline that <strong>fiscal stability and economic effectiveness could be tested by year-end<\/strong>.<br>These trends demand strong policy action to address structural weaknesses and strengthen budget sustainability.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Preliminary data from the Ministry of Finance for the period January\u2013August 2025 show a stable performance in revenues and spending discipline, but comparisons with the same period of last year [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":23199,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10475],"tags":[11758,18386,18385,18384,18376,18380,18377],"class_list":["post-23243","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-en","tag-budget-revenues","tag-capital-investment-delays","tag-consumption-dependence","tag-fiscal-surplus-decline","tag-medium-term-fiscal-stability","tag-public-spending-growth","tag-structural-economic-risks"],"featured_image_src":{"landsacpe":["https:\/\/altax.al\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/fiscal-performance-640x445.jpg",640,445,true],"list":["https:\/\/altax.al\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/fiscal-performance-463x348.jpg",463,348,true],"medium":["https:\/\/altax.al\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/fiscal-performance-300x300.jpg",300,300,true],"full":["https:\/\/altax.al\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/fiscal-performance.jpg",640,640,false]},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.3 - 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