{"id":21751,"date":"2025-02-01T17:03:00","date_gmt":"2025-02-01T16:03:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/altax.al\/?p=21751"},"modified":"2025-05-16T17:09:55","modified_gmt":"2025-05-16T15:09:55","slug":"will-this-appreciation-of-the-euro-against-the-lek-at-the-end-of-january-2025-be-long-term","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/altax.al\/en\/will-this-appreciation-of-the-euro-against-the-lek-at-the-end-of-january-2025-be-long-term\/","title":{"rendered":"Will this appreciation of the Euro against the Lek at the end of January 2025 be long-term?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The strengthening of the euro in Albania by three points at the end of January 2025 compared to the beginning of the month can be explained by a number of formal and informal factors that influence the foreign exchange market at the local level. The factors that may have influenced, also considering the early months in recent years, seem to be:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Formal Factors<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monetary policy of the Bank of Albania<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The interest rate of 2.75% is relatively low compared to interest rates in other economies, which may have encouraged investors to seek better opportunities in foreign currencies like the euro, especially if they see a chance for better returns abroad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even though the Bank of Albania may have maintained a stable interest rate to stimulate the economy, this may have led investors to seek protection from a possible depreciation of the Lek against other currencies, increasing the demand for euros as a way to diversify their investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the interest rate remains at low levels, investors may prefer to withdraw capital from Albania or invest in foreign assets that offer greater profit opportunities. This process may increase the demand for euros and thus may encourage its strengthening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher Public Expenditures<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

An increase in public spending by 37% in January 2025 compared to 2024 reflects a growing need for financing, especially in foreign currency such as the euro. This may have led to an increased demand for euros from the government and entities financing the budget deficit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

High expenditures may be related to large infrastructure projects or other investments that require foreign currency financing, such as the euro. This may be a factor that led to increased demand for euros, raising its value in the exchange market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the increase in public spending is related to rising costs, especially in the imports of goods and services (e.g., fuel, construction materials, etc.), this may have increased Albania’s current account deficit and brought a greater need for foreign currency, strengthening the euro in the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If public spending has been used to support economic growth and there has been an increase in income from other sectors (such as tourism, exports, or technology), this may have created a greater opportunity to sustain euro demand, despite increased spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Increase in remittance flows from emigrants<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Albania has a significant number of emigrants who send money home. If remittances have significantly increased at the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025, this factor may have increased the demand for euros in the market, influencing its strengthening. Remittance flows from emigrants have a direct impact on the Albanian foreign exchange market. This happens because families and businesses receiving these funds often convert them into Lek to cover their expenses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, this effect is usually seasonal and may not last for a long period. If remittances stabilize in the following months, then the pressure for the euro to strengthen may decrease, leading to an exchange rate return to more normal levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Increase in foreign investments and diversification of financing sources<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The increase in foreign direct investment (FDI) and the diversification of financing sources are key factors for exchange rate stability and euro strengthening over a longer term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Albania manages to attract greater foreign investments in 2025, then the demand for euros will remain high due to the need to finance projects, import payments of technology and foreign services. This could help maintain a higher euro exchange rate against the Lek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, exchange rate stability is a key factor for attracting these investments. An unstable exchange rate or large currency fluctuations may create uncertainty for investors and negatively impact their decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If investors see that the Albanian government is following stable monetary policies, managing public debt carefully, and implementing reforms to increase transparency and the business climate, then foreign investments are more likely to increase. This would ensure a more stable demand for euros and help maintain its strengthening beyond a temporary seasonal effect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Impact of increased consumer spending<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The increase in consumer spending directly influences the demand for foreign currency, also affecting the exchange rate between the Lek and the euro. When individuals\u2019 incomes rise from remittances, wage increases, or other sources, they are likely to consume more at the beginning of the year, especially in goods and services dependent on imports, such as technology, automobiles, luxury products, and some food categories.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The tourism sector also plays an important role in this dynamic. On one hand, revenues from foreign tourists bring more euros into the local market, increasing the currency supply. On the other hand, Albanians traveling abroad for vacations or business increase the demand for foreign currency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The rise in consumption is accompanied by a widening of the trade deficit\u2014more imports than exports\u2014so the pressure on the Lek may increase, influencing the strengthening of the euro. In this case, careful fiscal and monetary policies are necessary to maintain balance in the foreign exchange market and avoid large exchange rate fluctuations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Albania’s economic performance and exposure to international markets<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Albanian economy is experiencing slow growth in key sectors such as: agricultural exports and the textile\/garment industry. This situation affects the low demand for foreign currency, leading to a temporary strengthening of the Lek, i.e., the opposite of January’s trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But a more important factor is the trade deficit, or in other words, imports rising more than exports. This undermines the above effect, as the increased need for euros to pay for goods and services from abroad weakens the Lek more than the strengthening driven by seasonal and weak domestic exports. Only if there are strong energy exports and other goods could there be a significant impact, and this can be seen during high export volume periods.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The impact of international factors, such as global financial crises, commodity price fluctuations, or the European Central Bank\u2019s monetary policies, can exacerbate or ease these effects. For this reason, a sustainable economic growth strategy, export diversification, and increasing the competitiveness of production sectors are critical to maintain a stable exchange rate and reduce exposure to unexpected currency fluctuations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Euro purchases by commercial banks<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This action is an important factor that can help shape the exchange rate and the stability of the domestic currency. When commercial banks buy euros, they influence the supply of currency in the domestic market, and the case of purchases by banks in January may have had a significant impact on weakening the domestic currency, the Lek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Informal Factors<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deterioration of perception due to out-of-market influences<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

If there have been perceived concerns from the public and investors about the stability of the domestic currency (the Lek), this may have led to higher demand for euros. Any concern about rising public debt, or political uncertainty may have increased the demand for foreign currency as a “safer haven.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reversals in international exchange rates<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Impacts from developments in international financial markets (e.g., the strengthening of the euro in global markets) may have had a domino effect on the exchange rate in Albania. Global uncertainty, such as possible financial crises or political tensions in the region, may have influenced the movement of the euro exchange rate in the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Speculation and activities of currency traders<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Speculative activities of currency traders may have contributed to the strengthening of the euro. If investors saw profit opportunities in the strengthening of the euro due to anticipated demand or possible uncertainty, this may have caused an increase in currency demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Impact of increased foreign visitors and informal euro inflows<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The tourism season in Albania, which is usually associated with payments and transactions in euros, may have influenced the strengthening of the euro in January, especially if there was an increase in tourism in January 2025 compared to one year earlier and an improvement in the economy supporting this sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Compared to previous years, when euro strengthening has been on average lower (1\u20131.5 points), the euro\u2019s strengthening by three points at the end of January 2025 may have resulted from a combination of formal factors, such as the Bank of Albania\u2019s monetary policies, foreign investments and increased remittance flows, as well as informal factors, such as investor perception of the economy and speculative activities in the exchange market. This euro strengthening indicates a heightened period of demand for foreign currency and a greater temporary opportunity for currency stability in Albania.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The combination of a low interest rate (2.75%) and higher public spending (37% more in January 2025 compared to last year) may have created conditions for a euro strengthening. The increase in spending may have led to increased demand for foreign currency, especially for debt financing or projects requiring euros. Likewise, a low interest rate may have pushed investors to seek foreign currency, including euros, as a safer opportunity for investments and protection from potential economic uncertainties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This euro strengthening may be of a temporary nature, considering that it has also occurred in other years during the month of January. If we look at historical data, it is true that in other years, during January, the euro has had a similar strengthening, which has often been temporary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Factors that may support this argument relate to:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Seasonality of expenditures and demand<\/strong>
    One of the main reasons that may explain the strengthening of the euro during the first months of the year (including January) is the temporary inflow of demand for foreign currency linked to a seasonally busy period of expenditures and specific transactions. This may include government spending, public investment programs, transactions by large economic or financial groups, as well as capital inflows from remittances, offshore accounts, and foreign investments. These flows are often higher at the end of the year and at the beginning of the new year.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Holiday period impacts and financial flow movements<\/strong>
    After the holiday season\u2014when there is typically an increase in consumption and spending\u2014demand for foreign currency rises. This is a temporary factor that may support a strengthening of the euro, but it is seasonal in nature and may fade after a few months. Therefore, this surge in demand could be short-lived and revert to more typical levels after the first quarter.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Effects of fiscal policies and debt in early months<\/strong>
    Efforts to manage public debt, pay interest, and finance new projects early in the year may create temporary demand for foreign currency. This is another factor that may influence a short-term strengthening of the euro.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. Fluctuations in international markets and inflationary pressures<\/strong>
    Demand for foreign currency can also be linked to global uncertainty, such as rising energy prices or shifts in other countries’ monetary policies. These global fluctuations may temporarily boost the euro but may prove transitory if international factors stabilize.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    What might happen by spring?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    To forecast whether the euro\u2019s strengthening is sustainable into the spring, several aspects should be considered:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    • Monetary and fiscal policies<\/strong>
      The policies of the Bank of Albania and public spending may continue to support the euro during certain periods. However, if such policies are temporary (e.g., implemented only at the beginning of the year), it is likely that the euro\u2019s strength will diminish over the course of the year.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Foreign investments and global market developments<\/strong>
      Foreign investments and capital inflows will be key to maintaining stable demand for the euro. If Albania succeeds in attracting significant investments, this could support more sustained demand. However, if international markets experience uncertainty or a drop in foreign currency demand, a stabilization\u2014or weakening\u2014of the euro could occur.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Rising inflation and demand for foreign currency<\/strong>
      If inflation increases in Albania, this could put sustained upward pressure on euro demand. In that case, the euro\u2019s strength might be more stable. However, this depends on external factors and on support from the Bank of Albania in stabilizing the exchange rate.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Reduction of informal Euro supply in the Market<\/strong>
      Money laundering often involves the use of foreign currencies, particularly the euro. If authorities successfully curb these activities, there may be less euro in circulation, which could increase demand and temporarily strengthen the currency. If anti-money laundering measures are effectively enforced, a temporary shortage of euros in the market could arise, leading to a stronger euro.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      Political perception and Euro strengthening ahead of the May 2025 Elections<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      A stronger euro may directly affect voters\u2019 perceptions. It could create a positive impression among voters regarding economic stability and the government’s management of fiscal and monetary policy. In this way, governments might use the euro\u2019s strength as an indicator of successful economic policies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      For voters, a stronger euro may inspire confidence in the national economy, leading them to believe the government is managing the economy well and delivering positive results. This could influence the outcomes of the May 2025 elections, especially if the stronger euro is associated with improved living standards and economic stability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Policy decisions related to economic stabilization and maintaining a stable exchange rate may help foster a positive perception. If public spending and investments increase, and public debt and inflation are well-managed, an optimistic climate may be created ahead of the elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Policies aimed at strengthening the euro may also be seen as steps toward greater economic stabilization and EU integration\u2014potentially boosting public support for the government before the elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      The strengthening of the euro in the first months of 2025 appears to be temporary, as in previous years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      If informal capital flows remain a key factor in the economy, monetary policy interventions may not be sufficient to maintain the euro\u2019s strength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      On the other hand, if Albania manages to improve its business environment, attract more foreign direct investment, and increase formalization of the economy, then the exchange rate will be more influenced by real economic factors rather than speculation or informal flows. This would ensure greater stability and reduce unexpected currency fluctuations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Moreover, effective management of inflation and public debt will be decisive in avoiding pressure on the local currency. If inflation rises significantly and public debt becomes harder to manage, confidence in the lek may drop and demand for euros may increase\u2014causing a non-sustainable strengthening of the euro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Without a combination of sound economic and monetary policies, along with effective anti-informality and anti-money laundering measures, the euro\u2019s strength in early 2025 may remain a temporary phenomenon, with the possibility of significant fluctuations in the following months.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      The strengthening of the euro in Albania by three points at the end of January 2025 compared to the beginning of the month can be explained by a number of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":20490,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9756],"tags":[16468,16465,16469,11784,16467,8843,9466,9195,16464],"class_list":["post-21751","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog","tag-election-impact","tag-euro-strengthening","tag-exchange-rate-stability","tag-foreign-investments","tag-inflation-pressure","tag-informal-economy","tag-monetary-policy","tag-public-spending","tag-seasonal-demand"],"featured_image_src":{"landsacpe":["https:\/\/altax.al\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Euro-increase-640x445.png",640,445,true],"list":["https:\/\/altax.al\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Euro-increase-463x348.png",463,348,true],"medium":["https:\/\/altax.al\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Euro-increase-300x300.png",300,300,true],"full":["https:\/\/altax.al\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Euro-increase.png",640,640,false]},"yoast_head":"\nWill this appreciation of the Euro against the Lek at the end of January 2025 be long-term? 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