{"id":21471,"date":"2025-02-04T15:22:00","date_gmt":"2025-02-04T14:22:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/altax.al\/?p=21471"},"modified":"2025-05-01T15:27:20","modified_gmt":"2025-05-01T13:27:20","slug":"analysis-of-the-euro-exchange-rate-in-albania-2023-2025-and-influencing-factors","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/altax.al\/en\/analysis-of-the-euro-exchange-rate-in-albania-2023-2025-and-influencing-factors\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysis of the Euro Exchange Rate in Albania (2023\u20132025) and Influencing Factors"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Analysis of the Euro Exchange Rate in Albania (2023\u20132025) and Influencing Factors<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Euro Exchange Rate Movement: A Continuous Depreciation<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Over the past three years, the euro has experienced a steady depreciation in the Albanian currency market:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Start of 2023<\/strong> \u2192 \u20ac1 = 116.09 ALL<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Start of 2024<\/strong> \u2192 \u20ac1 = 103.24 ALL (<strong>-12.85 ALL, -11.1%<\/strong>)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Start of 2025<\/strong> \u2192 \u20ac1 = 97.40 ALL (<strong>-5.84 ALL, -5.7%<\/strong>)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u27a1 <strong>Total depreciation over two years<\/strong>: <strong>-18.69 ALL (-16.1%)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What Does This Trend Indicate?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>An <strong>increased supply of euros<\/strong> in the domestic market has contributed to its depreciation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Growth in <strong>foreign currency inflows<\/strong> from tourism, remittances, foreign investments, and informal sources has offset demand from imports, weakening the euro.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Additional pressures come from <strong>money laundering<\/strong> and <strong>informal sector investments<\/strong>, which flood the market with foreign currency.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Trade Deficit: Why Is It Not Strengthening the Euro?<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Albania continues to run a large <strong>trade deficit<\/strong>, which would typically increase demand for euros. However, this effect is overridden by strong currency inflows from other channels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th>Year<\/th><th>Exports<\/th><th>Imports<\/th><th>Trade Deficit<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>2023<\/td><td>\u20ac4.4 billion<\/td><td>\u20ac8.7 billion<\/td><td><strong>-\u20ac4.3 billion<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2024<\/td><td>\u20ac3.4 billion<\/td><td>\u20ac8.9 billion<\/td><td><strong>-\u20ac5.5 billion<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u27a1 Although the trade deficit widened by \u20ac1.2 billion, the euro continued to depreciate due to oversupply in the currency market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Exports and Imports by Sector<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th>Sector<\/th><th>Exports 2023<\/th><th>Exports 2024<\/th><th>Change<\/th><th>Imports 2023<\/th><th>Imports 2024<\/th><th>Change<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Agricultural &amp; Food Products<\/td><td>\u20ac557M<\/td><td>\u20ac533M<\/td><td>-4.3%<\/td><td>\u20ac1.46B<\/td><td>\u20ac1.56B<\/td><td>+6.8%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Minerals &amp; Fuels<\/td><td>\u20ac940M<\/td><td>\u20ac710M<\/td><td>-24.5%<\/td><td>\u20ac1B<\/td><td>\u20ac930M<\/td><td>-7%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Machinery &amp; Equipment<\/td><td>\u20ac390M<\/td><td>\u20ac375M<\/td><td>-3.8%<\/td><td>\u20ac2.1B<\/td><td>\u20ac2.4B<\/td><td>+14.3%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u27a1 Although imports have risen and exports have declined, <strong>other currency inflows have offset pressure on the euro<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Foreign Direct Investment: Is It Increasing Euro Supply?<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In 2024, Albania recorded <strong>\u20ac1.4 billion<\/strong> in foreign direct investment (FDI), distributed as follows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>26% in real estate<\/strong> \u2192 Foreign investors brought in euros to purchase property, increasing euro supply.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>17% in the financial sector<\/strong> \u2192 Investment in banking and finance boosted monetary stability and the lek.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>16% in extractive industries<\/strong> \u2192 Impact was limited due to declining mineral exports.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>10% in energy<\/strong> \u2192 Helped reduce reliance on energy imports.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>4% in transportation<\/strong> \u2192 May reduce trade costs in the future.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>27% in other sectors<\/strong> \u2192 Including metallurgy, construction, tech, trade, and services.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u27a1 <strong>FDI is a major contributor<\/strong> to the rising euro supply and thus its depreciation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Remittances, Tourism, and Public Spending: Impact on the Euro<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u20ac900 million in remittances<\/strong> \u2192 Sustains a high level of euro availability in the market.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u20ac4.6 billion in tourism revenues<\/strong> from foreign visitors.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u20ac3.4 billion spent abroad<\/strong> by Albanian tourists.<br>\u27a1 <strong>Net tourism balance: +\u20ac1.2 billion<\/strong>, contributing to a stronger lek.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Government budget spending:<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>2023: \u20ac6.2 billion<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2024: \u20ac7.2 billion (<strong>+16.1%<\/strong>)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These fiscal injections <strong>boost money circulation<\/strong> and increase <strong>domestic demand for lek<\/strong>, further weakening the euro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u27a1 <strong>Remittances, tourism, and fiscal expansion<\/strong> have collectively strengthened the lek and reduced the need for euros.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Role of Informal Money and Money Laundering<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A major factor behind the high euro supply is the presence of informal capital and money laundering.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Real estate<\/strong> is a key sector for laundering money, generating large foreign currency inflows from questionable sources.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Trade and construction sectors<\/strong> are also implicated in laundering schemes, further saturating the market with euros.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Informal investments and undeclared capital create <strong>artificial increases in euro supply<\/strong>, pushing its value down.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u27a1 <strong>Stronger government oversight<\/strong> of informal capital flows could reduce euro supply and strengthen the currency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Monetary and Fiscal Policies: A Reinforcing Factor<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The <strong>Bank of Albania<\/strong> has maintained a <strong>stable monetary policy<\/strong>, controlling inflation and keeping interest rates supportive of growth.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Public trust in the lek<\/strong> has increased, reducing reliance on the euro for savings.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Why Is the Euro Depreciating in Albania?<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th>Key Factor<\/th><th>Effect on Euro<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><strong>Trade deficit (-\u20ac5.5B)<\/strong><\/td><td>Should increase demand for euro, but offset by other inflows.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>FDI (\u20ac1.4B)<\/strong><\/td><td>Increased euro supply, contributing to depreciation.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Remittances (\u20ac900M)<\/strong><\/td><td>Sustained euro supply, strengthens lek.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Tourism (+\u20ac1.2B net)<\/strong><\/td><td>Major euro inflow, puts downward pressure on euro.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Public spending (+\u20ac1B net)<\/strong><\/td><td>Increases money circulation, favors lek.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Monetary policy<\/strong><\/td><td>Strengthened confidence in lek, reduces euro demand.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Money laundering<\/strong><\/td><td>Informal euro inflows flood market, lower euro value.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What Lies Ahead?<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If recent trends persist, the <strong>euro may continue to weaken<\/strong> in the Albanian market.<br>However, should <strong>exports increase<\/strong> or <strong>demand for euros in trade and investment rise<\/strong>, <strong>stabilization or appreciation<\/strong> could occur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u27a1 <strong>Future depreciation is likely<\/strong> if current drivers remain, but targeted reforms could reverse the trend.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Analysis of the Euro Exchange Rate in Albania (2023\u20132025) and Influencing Factors Euro Exchange Rate Movement: A Continuous Depreciation Over the past three years, the euro has experienced a steady 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