{"id":15587,"date":"2023-05-15T08:03:54","date_gmt":"2023-05-15T06:03:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/altax.al\/?p=15587"},"modified":"2023-05-03T12:34:31","modified_gmt":"2023-05-03T10:34:31","slug":"what-affects-inflation-and-exchange-rates-in-albania","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/altax.al\/en\/what-affects-inflation-and-exchange-rates-in-albania\/","title":{"rendered":"What affects inflation and exchange rates in Albania?"},"content":{"rendered":"

In a previous study of ALTAX [1]<\/a>, we mentioned all the factors analyzed and listed, which are the influences on the variations of the foreign exchange rate and inflation.<\/p>\n

From this previous analysis, we conclude that because of the combination of all the factors that control the changes in the exchange rate, they have had the current effect in the market with a weaker Euro against the Lek. These factors will keep the foreign exchange market and inflation at these levels if some of them do not change their trend.<\/p>\n

But, based on the way part of the analysis is oriented by relativizing the current situation for the impact of some factors that are considered the main ones in the exchange rate and inflation, where the analyzes are observed to have relative omissions and clarifications, we think it is time for the debate to be based on analytical indicators and clarifications of the financial level instead of statistical ones.<\/p>\n

First, we would like to dwell on the use of terms to clarify the treatment of influencing factors.<\/p>\n

In no terminology and technical analysis on the exchange rate, are not mentioned in the group of influencing factors natural and unnatural causes as seen in several blogs.<\/p>\n

In their entirety, exchange rates are determined by economic factors, such as: interest rates, inflation, consumer confidence in the market and politics, the current account in the balance of payments, economic growth and similar economic and fiscal indicators mentioned at the beginning of the analysis. .<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, other factors that are not considered economic are government intervention, the risk of competitiveness in the market (successes and failures), market speculation and informal or dirty money which, among others, are closely related to economic factors.<\/p>\n

Secondly, in sifting the effects there are also many elements that influence these factors and anyone who is interested in delving further into this topic can find it in many of the information opportunities that are offered online.<\/p>\n

In order not to repeat what we have presented before, today we are stopping to clarify the three main factors that have been mentioned by the leaders of public institutions, as the three main reasons why the Lek has strengthened further, although the economic indicators do not suggest that this is Reason.<\/p>\n

The first is the impact of foreign investments<\/strong> [2]<\/a> with cash flows according to the currency that belongs to the geography of the investors in years [3]<\/a>, but which are from the Euro zone. What counts in this analysis is the impact of investments on the balance of payments [4]<\/a>. In the fourth quarter of 2022, there is a “narrowing of the current account deficit in the balance of payments” [5]<\/a>. Although the current account also includes net income (such as interest and dividends) and transfers from abroad (foreign aid), which are usually a small part of the total, this means that Albania has narrowed the gap between imports of goods and services with exports, but not at significant levels. We elaborated on this fact in the second point.<\/p>\n

As a functional rule, financial flows (in 2022 they were 1.372 billion Euro) should directly support economic growth by easing constraints on domestic resources. But they should also indirectly weaken growth through the appreciation of the real exchange rate.<\/p>\n

The increase in capital inflows should lead to a credit boom and asset price inflation, which would be offset by losses due to the depreciation of the Lek based on the exchange rate and the fall in the price of capital.<\/p>\n

The Albanian financial market (as it is) has no restrictions from internal sources, there has been no credit boom and we have not yet ascertained the depreciation of the lek until the end of April 2023.<\/p>\n

So, all the inflows could affect the decrease in the value of the lek against the currencies of the investing countries.<\/p>\n

The problem of the Albanian economy, observed throughout 2022 and in the first 4 months of 2023, is that financing flows are not oriented towards production and a competitive economy.<\/p>\n

Most of all, they have increased and strengthened the circulation and strengthening of monopolistic positions in the real estate market, the energy market, and the financial market, serving as a source of financing with a closed cycle, which does not circulate only directly and with all the financing flows of currency in the money market.<\/p>\n

In fact, the biggest problem of foreign investments in Albania is that 34.7% of them come from companies with anonymous owners (shell companies) and which are the hottest topic of debate among local experts and politicians. This part of the working capital has gone to the sectors that can be related to the production and the energy and infrastructure resources and serves as a money that can increase the supply in the money market, for the reasons of the goals that carry the capital inflows with anonymous owners.<\/p>\n

The second is the trade balanc<\/strong>e, which is rightly mentioned as a particularly key factor in the variation of the exchange rate, and which has an influential weight day by day.<\/p>\n

According to the data of foreign trade statistics, the main partner with Albania, both for Exports [6]<\/a>, but also for imports, is Italy with 42% of all exports.<\/p>\n

In the comparison of imports with exports for the first quarter of 2023, but also for the year 2022, it is seen that the trade deficit in 2023 is 41%, in 2022 it is 42%.<\/p>\n

In the best case in recent years, when the economy has started to work more than usual, the dependence on imports has increased and so has the trade deficit.<\/p>\n

In an analysis of the impact on the exchange market, but also on inflation, a situation is observed as follows, according to the main sectors:<\/p>\n

Exports<\/em><\/p>\n

Fashion (textiles and shoes) in first place, representing 28% of the total value of exports<\/p>\n

Natural resources and fuels in second place with 26%<\/p>\n

Construction materials in third place with 19%<\/p>\n

Agriculture is in fourth place with 10% of the total value of exports.<\/p>\n

Imports<\/em><\/p>\n

Machinery, equipment, and spare parts in the first place constitute 23% of the total value of imports.<\/p>\n

The export-import balance is 78% deficit<\/p>\n

Agriculture is in second place with 15%.<\/p>\n

The export-import balance is 61% deficit<\/p>\n

Construction materials are in third place with 15%.<\/p>\n

The export-import balance is 26% deficit<\/p>\n

Chemical and plastic products are in fourth place with 14%.<\/p>\n

The export-import balance is 87% deficit<\/p>\n

Natural resources, fuel in fifth place with 12%.<\/p>\n

The export-import balance is 25% surplus<\/p>\n

Fashion (textiles and shoes) is in sixth place with 11%.<\/p>\n

The export-import balance is 47% surplus<\/p>\n

The indicator of the deficit of exports to imports in the trade balance is significantly higher than the surplus.<\/p>\n

Import and export statistics show the values \u200b\u200bof invoicing between Albanian and foreign businesses, both for export and import. But this invoicing does not mean that the payments\/cash circulation happened at the same time according to the transaction invoicing. At least over 20% of invoices are paid later than the payment date, especially for export, this is said from business experience, but also the reactions of Albanian exporters and importers.<\/p>\n

Based on the trade balance, where imports are significantly higher than exports, it should have influenced not the strengthening of the Lek, but its weakening. This trend occurs as we have a smaller supply of Euros because there is less receipt of invoices from exporters and a greater demand for Euros from importers because import Euro invoices need to be paid.<\/p>\n

This means that traders and manufacturers should buy in 2022 and 2023 more euros in the market, to pay bills for goods and services, increasing the demand more in relation to the supply of euros in case there would be inflows and outflows. of euros only from trade relations. However, the Albanian market is supplied with different currencies from remittances and informal money, in addition to foreign currencies that enter as investments, as well as those that come from exports.<\/p>\n

Third, the circulation of money in the market both from remittances, but also from money without justification of its source<\/strong>, which has long been part of the increased monetary supply, is an influencer that in the analysis of other countries holds significant importance.<\/p>\n

The findings show that the inflow of remittances leads to an appreciation of the nominal exchange rate and an increase in the money supply under the fixed exchange rate regime. But on the other hand, the level of the exchange rate has an impact because senders consider the value of the local currency when sending their money, and in this case, now the exchange rate in 2022 was at reasonable levels for households, it is understood that this sending money was also worth to develop more consumption.<\/p>\n

In 2023, the appreciation of the local currency (Leku) will reduce the remittance ratio because it represents a form of cost for the sender.<\/p>\n

But in Albania, this importance of excess money in the market is multiplied due to the threatening level of informality, increased corruption, the presence of the economy still based on cash transactions, as well as the inaction of some institutions or the actions of segmented\/fragmented and not inclusive of other institutions. These factors negatively affect the exchange rate, allowing the possibility of speculation and chaos in the foreign exchange market.<\/p>\n

Our analysis shows that, unlike remittances, foreign direct investment and remittances have an appreciating effect on the lek in the real effective exchange rate. In other words, if there is a risk of exchange rate sickness, it comes more from the introduction of money from abroad and foreign direct investments, where close to 35% of them come as funds from offshore companies.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, government spending certainly causes an appreciation of the Lek, where in the meantime trade openness will have an important and negative long-term effect.<\/p>\n

In the case of an increase in remittances, it seems that in 2008, when there was a similar flow, it did not damage the price competition of goods and services. The increase in domestic consumption of tradable goods, which is proportionally greater than the increase in remittances, causes a depreciation of the lek in relation to the euro.<\/p>\n

On the one hand, exchange control policies followed by public authorities tend to adopt an overvalued exchange rate, inverting the relationship between remittances and spending within the country. On the other hand, when the emigrants’ remittances were lower than in 2022, this did not affect either the reduction of the government’s consumption, nor a devaluation of the real effective exchange rate of the lek with the euro.<\/p>\n

From a balance of influencing factors for overvaluing or undervaluing the Lek against the Euro, the impact on breaking this balance is precisely the introduction of excess money from abroad and which is already present trying to get out of the framework of the real economy, even now it can try to be a challenge to it and the entire monetary policy for de-euroization undertaken for years by the Bank of Albania<\/p>\n

[1]<\/a> https:\/\/altax.al\/rrisku-i-kursit-te-kembimit-midis-lekut-dhe-euros-ne-tregun-shqiptar\/<\/a>
\n[2]<\/a> https:\/\/www.aida.gov.al\/sq\/biznes-ne-shqiperi\/investime-te-huaja-direkte<\/a>
\n[3]<\/a>https:\/\/www.bankofalbania.org\/?crd=0,8,1,8,0,18666&uni=20230501202207462524713780460241&ln=1&mode=alone<\/a>
\n[4]<\/a> The balance of payments includes three components: the current account, the capital account and the financial account
\n[5]<\/a> https:\/\/www.bankofalbania.org\/rc\/doc\/RSF_6MII_2022_per_publikim_23933.docx<\/a>
\n[6]<\/a> https:\/\/www.instat.gov.al\/media\/11463\/tj-mars-2023.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In a previous study of ALTAX [1], we mentioned all the factors analyzed and listed, which are the influences on the variations of the foreign exchange rate and inflation. 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